"Betting Against the Public" is one of the most popular and simplest methods used by SportsInsights.com members. The logic is simple: always bet against the public. Which ever team the public is loading up on, simply bet the other team. There is a reason why sportsbooks are in business. We've gone to extraordinary length to conclusively proved that Betting Against the Public (Fading the Public) betting strategy will produce a positive return on investment. Every new season we update the betting percentage data and tally our earnings. We also reveal what is the optimal betting percentage threshold to Bet Against the Public. Is it 65% or maybe 70%? Every sport is different so check back a the beginning of every season for an updated report.
How can simply " Betting Against the Public" produce a profitable result?
The answer is based on psychology. The public loves to bet favorites and "overs." It's human nature to root for winners and scoring. The media, which over-hypes winning teams that score a lot of points, further inflates this human tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly. Sportsbooks do not look to balance their books. They look to exploit sports bettors' tendencies by shading favorites and overs. With the difference in long-term winning and losing measured by 1-3%, continually getting an extra 0.5 to 1.0 point every time you bet an underdog or under will increase your win percentage by 1-3%. This is a measurable fact! The following articles prove in more detail our methodology and results for each major sports type. Stop buying snake oil from "scamdicappers" and start sports investing with a proven sports betting systems & strategies.
BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC REPORTS
NFL Football Betting Against the Public Articles
The NFL is the most heavily bet sport that we cover, and betting against the public is a strong strategy to use. The more bettors that you have, the more amateur or "square" bettors you will have, and you can use that to your advantage. These articles break down how betting against the public (or fading the public) did in the previous season. Check back at the beginning of every season, or sign up to receive it by email. We will often consider these strategies when making our Square Plays which are available to our Premium Pro members.
Betting Against the Public and the NFL (2003-2010)
In this article, we update our results for "Betting against the Public" and taking NFL underdogs. Sports Insights' (SI's) philosophy of finding contrarian value in the sports marketplace continues to add value in the NFL and all major U.S. sports includes SI's exclusive betting trends data, which goes back to the 2003 season.
The information on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.
Sports Insights Database and NFL Research
Sports Insights (SI) has collected betting data for every major U.S. sport since the 2003. We collect the opening and closing lines (and "line movement," for various sportsbooks) as well as final scores -- and perhaps most importantly, SI's proprietary NFL Betting Trends.
Our research team also "cleans" our data with various systematic techniques -- as well as "by hand" -- to ensure our historical data is useful for our research articles and our Members. SI's historical database for each sport is an important part of our research and value-added for our Members. It is the backbone for our contrarian sports investing methods and you can't find this kind of data and information anywhere else! Sports Insights' database for the NFL now includes over 2,100 games since 2003. For the purposes of this article, we include the playoffs, but exclude the preseason. Our database and contrarian methods are backed by tens of thousands of games across every major U.S. sport.
Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Similar to other sports, we present results for "Betting Against the Public" at different thresholds of betting percentage AND for home teams and visiting teams.
Table 1: Betting Against the Public (2003-2010 NFL Seasons)
Betting Percentage Home Team Visiting Team
< 40% 48.7% 54.4%
< 30% 50.6% 53.9%
< 25% 52.3% 52.7%
< 20% 54.5% 36.4% (few games)
Using the Table
In addition to overall "Bet Against" results, we have broken down how Betting Against the Public works for Home teams or a Visitors.
For example, if a Home team has less than 20% of the public betting on them (Visitor has more than 80% of the public), this scenario resulted in a 54.2% winning percentage.
On the other hand, Visitors with less than 25% of the bets (more than 75% of bets on Home team), resulted in a 54.4% winning percentage.
Some members may try using Home teams at the 20% level and Visiting teams at the 30% level.
Note that the results are slightly better for visiting teams, suggesting that there is some value on NFL visiting teams. Note that this is very moderate, but it is based on years of NFL results.
Take the Underdog?
Over the years, betting on underdogs has proven to be a good "value" play. We have seen academic studies that verify the bias towards underdogs in the NFL (as well as in other major sports). Below, we combine the premise of betting on an underdog with "betting against the public." In particular, we studied taking underdogs getting at least 7 points, at various betting percentage thresholds. The results improve on a straight usage of "betting percentages."
If you like the information in our articles, please check out our series of Sports Investing books for even more research and betting systems.
Table 2: Betting Against the Public on 7-Point or More Underdogs (2003-2010 NFL Seasons)
Betting Percentage Home Team Getting 7+ Points Visiting Team Getting 7+ Points
< 40% 54.6% 54.2%
< 30% 55.1% 53.7%
< 25% 53.7% 52.6%
< 20% 54.5% 33.3% (few games)
Members may want to focus on NFL underdogs of 7 points or more, at the 30% level.
Sports Insights Strategies
Last year, Sports Insights NFL Square Plays won 55.4% and our popular NFL Marketwatch column won 55.2% of its selections. Sports Insights' handicapping tools use many indicators such as betting percentages, line moves, and point spreads -- to help our Members improve their odds of success. Premium Pro Members have access to analytical tools such as our NFL Smart Money Betting System (that breaks triggers down by sportsbook) as well as our NFL Best Bets Betting System, where we put it all together.
Disclaimer:
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we have found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of "market efficiencies" recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data is error-free. However, we've tried our best to make sure every score and percentage is correct.
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I am an Architect by Profession and enjoy Trading Forex & Sports Investing. I write articles on different topics once in a while.
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