It's that time of year in Australia again. The heat swelters to 40degrees C, and then it rains the next day. Fans come from all over the World to see Melbourne and support their favourite players, whilst the natives will support the local heroes but realise that currently none of them has a realistic chance of glory. Yes, it's the middle of January and it's Grand Slam Tennis time at the Australian Open. What drama will unfold this year? Perhaps we will see a first time Grand Slam winner, maybe Federer will roll back the years as he did here in 2010, or more likely we will see the continuation of the established order of the top four's dominance.
2011 was dominated by three players. Only three players made a Grand Slam final-Djokovic, Nadal and Federer. Djokovic was the dominant player of the year, winning three Grand Slams and a record breaking run which saw him undefeated in his first 43 matches of the year until Federer broke his streak at the French Open semi final. Djokovic met Federer in three semi finals and won two, including a US Open in which Djokovic saved two match points, with Federer branding one of the winners "lucky". Djokovic has risen to undisputed number one and importantly seems to have the measure of his main rivals-Nadal and Federer. He crushed Nadal in both the Wimbledon and US Open finals and needs only the French Open title to complete a career Grand Slam following his 2011 heroics. Rightfully, Djokovic will start favourite this year but will have to enter the year as "The man to beat." At this stage last year, he didn't have that title. If the change of external pressures and internal expectactions don't affect Djokovic then it's hard to see anyone stopping his dominance, but then again, Grand Slams last two weeks and a poor first week-even if you're winning-can cost you dearly at the pointy end of the tournament.
World Number 2 Rafael Nadal was being mentioned as a player who could break Roger Federer's 16 Grand Slam record after his French Open win last year took his tally to 10. However, he was outclassed by Djokovic in the second half of the year, with Djokovic recording comfortable wins at Wimbledon and the US Open. Many people believe that Nadal's physical game has worn his body down to a point in which he has seen his best days pass him by. When he retired hurt during a 2010 Australian Open match with Andy Murray, many thought that may be the end for Nadal but he refined his game by being more aggressive and shortening points. The change saw him win the next two Grand Slams but in the second half of 2011 he lacked the answers against a rampant Djokovic. He was also well beaten by Gael Monfils very recently and whether or not he can maintain his high-intensity game combined with not a lot of firepower remains to be seen. He was virtually hit off the court by the more powerful Djokovic late in 2011 and it's hard to see him being able to turn that table of events on it's head in early 2012. However, Nadal would be confident of beating every other player in the draw over five sets and therefore should never be discounted.
Roger Federer, although now 30, looms as the largest obvious threat to Djokovic-if the two players meet. Federer should have beaten Djokovic in the US Open semi final and if he had taken one of the two match points on his own serve then he would have led Djokovic 2-1 in their Grand Slam 2011 semi finals. Furthermore, it was Federer who ended Djokovic's 43-match winning streak with a win on his own least favourite surface-clay-at the French Open and Federer seems to have a bit of friction between himself and Djokovic. In the 2011 Australian Open semi final, a highly strung Federer complained that Djokovic was receiving coaching from his players box and he was also less than gracious in defeat following the US Open semi final loss. Federer's game usually allows him to progress trouble free through the opening week of the Grand Slams and he doesn't expend a lot of energy in the process. He is keen to prove his doubters wrong-doubters who say he is not good enough anymore-and although Djokovic beat him comfortably in last years semi final, Federer would be quietly confident against Djokovic. Whether that means he can seriously challenge a Djokovic firing on all cylinders is another matter.
Only two more players-Murray and Tsonga-managed to get to a Grand Slam semi-final in 2011. Tsonga only managed it by coming from two sets to love down against Federer in the Wimbledon Quarter Final and in doing so, became the first man ever to beat Federer in a Grand Slam having lost the first two sets. His talent is unquestionable, however despite his natural power and athletic ability, he struggles to have an impact on the biggest stage of all.
Andy Murray's situation is becoming all too familiar for him and his fans. Murray made all four Grand Slam semi finals, an achievement in itself, but came up against Rafael Nadal in all four matches. He only progressed past Nadal once-at the Australian Open-but was outclassed by Djokovic in the final. A question mark remains over Murray regarding his ability to perform in Grand Slam finals. When he lost his first Grand Slam final to Roger Federer at the US Open in 2008, it looked like nerves had got the better of him. His second Grand Slam final was also against Federer in the 2010 Australian Open, where he was again well beaten by Federer. There is no shame in losing Grand Slam finals to Federer, who often raises his game to a new level for the finals, but there were signs of nerves again for Murray. In the 2011 final, Murray never looked like even being competitive against Djokovic and has lost all three Grand Slam finals in straight sets. He is perhaps aware of his problem and has just hired 8-time Grand Slam winner Ivan Lendl as his coach. Murray will be hoping that Lendl can use his vast playing experience to help him at the business end of the Grand Slams.
Looking outside the top seeds, it's hard to see too many genuine threats. Juan Martin del Potro looms as one player everyone will hope to avoid in the draw. On his way back from injury which interrupted his 2011 season, del Potro possesses the talent and the game to threaten anyone. He forced Djokovic to come up with his best tennis at the US Open and del Potro was likely disappointed the match was ended due to bad light at one set each. When play resumed the next day, Djokovic ran away with the match but will not forget the trouble he had in the opening two sets. Further down the draw, Fernando Verdasco is a crowd favourite following his marathon semi final loss to Nadal in 2009, but he has rarely produced that kind of form since and it's hard to see him upset the established order. 2011 surprise packet Alexandr Dolgopolov is looking to break into the top 10 in 2012, but again its hard to see him getting to, or past the semi finals.
Over the years there have been many fairytale stories and dramatic runs to the final. Marat Safin endeared himself to the fans in 2004 and 2005, beating Agassi, Roddick, Hewitt and Federer over the space of two years as he became the 2005 Champion. It was made of numerous performances that caught the fans' imaginations and heart and although we would like to see more runs like that, it's hard to see past the top four-Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray.
As a former semi-professional athlete, my passion is sports. I write articles on various sports events, including football, golf and tennis, and run a website to support my passion. Visit me at http://www.suttiesgolfshop.com/
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